Joe Bautista - won't you take me by the hand? **

I still can't believe that Jose Bautista hit 54 home runs in 2010.  Could it be that he was doing something differently?  His OPS sure says so:

2006 - .755
2007 - .753
2008 - .718
2009 - .757
2010 - .995

Let's check out his first 20 plate appearances in 2009 and 2010:

2010                                                        2009

1) 3 - pop out                                           1) 2 - line out
2) 6 - line out                                            2) 3 - 1b
3) 4 - fly out                                              3) 9 - 1b (infield)
4) 4 - walk                                                4) 7 - swinging
5) 4 - called out                                         5) 3 - fouled out
6) 5 - walk                                                6) 8 - swinging
7) 4 - swinging strike                                 7) 4 - fly out
8) 4 - walk                                                8) 2 - sacrifice
9) 2 - pop out                                           9) 4 - walk
10) 7 - pop out                                         10) 4 - swinging
11) 4 - GIDP                                            11) 1 - 1b
12) 2 - flies out                                          12) 3 - foul out
13) 4 - 2b                                                 13) 4 - 1b
14) 4 - swinging strike                               14) 1 - infield choice
15) 6 - walk                                              15) 4 - swinging
16) 3 - 1b                                                 16) 1 - ground out
17) 1 - pop out                                          17) 3 - looking
18) 1 - 2b                                                  18) 1 - 2b
19) 3 - line out                                            19) 3 - 1b
20) 4 - sac fly                                             20) 6 - 2b 

75 pitches                                                  73 pitches

Huh.  Not much of a difference in total pitches.  Maybe he didn't do anything different.  But not so fast -- he hit 73 in 2009 thanks to 3 long at bats (#3, 4 and 6) offsetting 4 times when we drove the first pitch into play (#11, 14, 16 and 18).  By contrast, in 2010 he was more consistent, with only 2 1-pitch at bats and only 1 at bat of 7 pitches or longer.

What do I make of this?  Well, first and foremost, I make that 20 at bats isn't a credible sample.  But given that this is what I have in front of me, I'll make the following posit.

In 2009, Bautista shows a ton of ability to make contact.  He goes 3-4 when he chases after the first pitch and #18 went deep.  Further, he fought hard in those early at bats, earning 27 pitches over 4 plate appearances.  In 2009 he had all of the tools to be a dynamic hitter except one -- patience.

In 2010, he saw pitch #4 in 13 out of his first 20 appearances (compared to just 9 in 2009).  He slowed it down and waited for his pitch.  And did it pay off...

Bautista also benefitted from not having a reputation as a power hitter.  I'm guessing that 2010 isn't easily repeatable, and I wouldn't want to put down money on another 50 home run year.  But I'd be surprised if he doesn't manage one home per 18 plate appearances -- maybe even one per 15 (that's 35-45 home runs if he stays healthy).

I guess you can call me a believer.

cheers,
jg

** -- Yeah, his name is Jose.  But it didn't scan, you see...