Monday, December 27, 2010

Waiting for Francona

People used to believe that Pedro Martinez was on a 100-pitch count leash. In 2003, many thought the failure to enforce that leash led to the calamity that followed (and I shan't say more about that today).

I'd like to see Beckett on a similar leash. Looking at his batting average against since 2002 shows that something was painfully different last year:

2002 -- .232
2003 -- .246
2004 -- .235
2005 -- .234
2006 -- .245
2007 -- .245
2008 -- .256
2009 -- .244
2010 -- .292

Yikes.

I watched a lot of those games. Some of them never looked good. But for several, they shared the following qualities:

  • Fewer than 60 pitches through 4 innings and very few base runners.

  • One or two massacres among the 5th, 6th and 7th innings.


  • What happened? Was it mental? Physical? Did the opposing batters just get wise to him?

    Darned if know. But I suspect that there is something there. Beckett's 70th through 100th pitches feel less good than the ones that come before them. I don't know if the velocity falls off. I don't know if the aim falls off. I don't really care. Here's what I'd like Francona to say to Beckett:

    You get 85 pitches. That's it. If you finish the 5th inning with under 70 pitches, I let you start the 6th. But you never get the 7th until you've demonstrated consistent success in the 5th and 6th. Beckett gets more wins. The Red Sox get more wins. What's not to like?

    And who gets those extra innings? How about Wakefield? He gets plenty of advanced notice and gets to warm up like a starter. And I like the idea of him having a defined roll -- right now it looks like he's waiting for one of the starters fall prey to an injury...

    Will it happen? Will Francona bring down the boot on Beckett? Of course not. If I expected the Red Sox to try such creativity, I will find that I am forever Waiting For Francona.

    Cheers,
    JG

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